Outlook 2016: Rates, Recessions & Elections

The correction of 2015 was not a surprise. The S&P 500 had gone 44 months without a decline of 10% or more, versus the average of 18 months since WWII. Now that the correction has come and nearly gone, however, what’s next? Equity markets are being whipsawed by international tensions, slowing growth, elevated valuations, and an eventual start of a rate-tightening cycle. Sam Stovall, U.S. Equity Strategist of S&P Capital IQ and author of The Seven Rules of Wall Street, will discuss his investment outlook, based on his assessment of stock market history, economic projections, fundamental forecasts, and technical trends. He will also show:

• There has never been a bear market since 1948 when inflation has been below 2% and the yield curve was above 1.7 percentage points.
• EPS recession fears may be offset by the prospects for a “v-shaped” recovery.
• The “Rule of 20” says the S&P 500 could be 9% higher by the end of 2016.
• The S&P 500’s return from August through October typically signals whether the incumbent party will be reelected or replaced.
• Stock market history can act like “virtual valium,” by calming nerves.

Sunrise Sessions Complimentary for Members who pre-register